Future of Technology
Future of Technology
Future of Technology and the Information Industry
(21st Century Economics may or may not agree with the statements made in this article. We have not independently verified them as we do with other examinations of future trends and events. However, it is our policy to present all sides of issues and from all of the reputable sources. You will have to judge for yourself if this MIT professor is correct)
Predictions of what will happen in the future is understandably an inexact science and must be based on a number of inputs from leading industry analyst, current trends and the activities of similar industries and leading edge industry competitors. There are, in fact, often some very predictable results from such studies and an image of the future environment can take on a reasonable form. However, this analysis must be seen as an on-going task since what the industry will become is evolving constantly.
Michael Dertouzos, Director of the Computer Laboratory at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge offer the following observations as to his expectations of where the IT industry is going in the next twenty to twenty-five years. The statements in italics reflect comments that 21st Century Economics has added based on more recent studies and our own perspective of the world. Our comments have an emphasis on energy and electricity markets because of the importance they play in the overall economy.
Technoprophecy
* Manufacturing will be reborn, as customization replaces the assembly line and local high-tech workshops supplant centralized factories. In fact, “Mass Customization” is a term recently coined to describe the way that manufacturing is doing this now. The centralized factories will survive but with significant computer automation to control the customization processes.
* Business alliances will proliferate, creating hundreds of virtual corporations that may be spread all over the globe. ExtraNets (virtual networks) connecting suppliers to producers and then directly to their customers will evolve in nearly every industry. This will support the growing Internet economy
* Office productivity will increase 200%, yet people will work longer hours with less job security. This prediction is likely now but may prove to be less true after the bulge of the baby boomers mover out of their prime working years. Every job, regardless of the activity, will require computer literacy as a core competency.
* Electronic commerce will greatly reduce the need for any cash transactions. Smart cards, EDI and other on-line transactions will almost eliminate coins and paper currency and make it easier for the government to tax you.
* Your health-care costs will plummet and your health will improve, as computers monitor your vital signs and doctors bid online to care for you. Corporate health care costs will go down while worker health will go up. Preventive care will become a hallmark of both business and the health care industry. Unfortunately, the aging population will probably drive costs to the government to the breaking point and the large excess will be passed to the population as reduced coverage and higher co-payments and premiums.
* Virtual Reality will become the new primary form of entertainment and edutainment. Virtual Reality will also invade routine business communications and advertisements. Look for it to make its first market debut in video games, then in the military and then in marketing. Entertainment will be last because of the changes needed in standards and the costs of the equipment.
* Non-lethal weapons will make warfare less deadly, but “online terrorism” and competitive business digital sabotage will proliferate requiring computer security to become a new essential staff position.
Michael Dertouzos says that “If you take all of the movies, all of the songs, all of the text, newspapers, magazines - the total represents less than 5% of the annual economy. But the office work done in the U.S.–people pushing pencils, paper, and computers — accounts for 60% of the annual U.S. economy and 50% for the 10 richest countries in the world. And that share is growing. No business will be successful if its office automation isn’t a positive, effective and efficient contributor to the organization’s productivity.
“Today we do our office work with just about the same inefficiencies [as] when we dug our streets with our hands. Looming ahead of us in the next century is an incredible opportunity to improve office work, not by 10%, but by a factor of 60 in many instances. Productivity will rise in the Information Age as it did in the Industrial Age and for the same reasons it did before: the application of new tools to relieve human work — more results from less work.”
But he warns of more missteps along the way where ill-advised IT innovations and poor implementations will under-deliver or have a negative effect on productivity. The man-machine interface is on his list as a fundamental challenge that affects the overall impact that IT will have.
The net effect will be that software developers must be much more in tune with the needs of the eventual users. This means that more than just the processing formulas have to be built into the software designs. Usability in the form of intuitive man-machine interfaces, easy to understand instructions and a true customer-oriented approach to the entire development concept must be adopted by every developer - both internal and external to the organization.
Among the effects of these design requirements is that internal IT or IS support departments must add skilled staff that are familiar with requirements analysis, user interface design and creating help or tutorial screens of complex ideas in easy to understand forms.
This report has obvious implications for employment, employers and business owners. If you are hiring or looking to be hired, these trends can affect your choices and chances. You have the opportunities to watch for these developing trends and be ready for them.