Future Customers, Employees and the Economy
Future Customers, Employees and the Economy
It is prudent for any business, large or small, to look ahead at what might change in the future so they can prepare today. Not having a crystal ball, I tend to look at the mega-trends and intuitively obvious changes and their consequences. Here are three that you might consider:
The predictable whiplash from the Bush-Oil-Big Business Axis of Corruption will undoubtedly result in a more “green” oriented federal government that will be more environmentally friendly, small business oriented and more protective of personal and privacy rights. Combined with a greater awareness of the global warming issue, the sales of energy efficient appliances, energy reduction construction, alternate energy heating and cooling and other energy and environmentally friendly products and services will thrive in this new economy. Solar panels, solar heating, home insulation, metal roofs, hybrid cars, thermal windows and other similar products will experience record sales over the next decade. Big cars, luxury boats, huge houses and other big energy users could very well face tax penalties and fees to discourage their purchase. The federal tax breaks and tax penalties will filter down to local governments and into commercial sales. If you can wait, some major expenses may have better tax advantages in 2010 than now.
Here come the Boomers! Age Power! With 32% of the Vermont population being baby boomers (third highest in the nation), we will feel the effects of the boomers sooner and to a greater degree than most states. This is good and bad. Their vast numbers will dominate politics, marketing, sales, jobs, styles and design. Their large numbers will also put a burden on public and welfare services and health care. With an annual spending power of $2.1 trillion, the boomers will have a powerful impact on the economy but they will have very specific preferences for goods and services. The good news for Vermont is that travel, resort services and vacation spending will rise significantly over the next two decades. Financial and medical services will thrive. However, new car sales will flatten or decline slightly. Real estate sales will take a marked decline as large and second boomer homes are put on the market at a time when the quantity of buyers will decline even faster. Many boomers will have to work to fund their longer-than-expected retirement and lack of savings in their working years. The good news is that boomers will make good employees – mature, good work ethic, honest. The bad news is that they may drive up employee medical expenses. Vermont businesses would be prudent to examine how to best cope with this inevitable change by planning inventory changes, store access improvements, new marketing methods and employment.
Technology is also a major force in shaping our world. Robotics have replaced thousands of assembly-line workers in factories. Automation and computers have eliminated thousands of other jobs in almost every industry and business. The speed of computers and the improving ability and efficiency of the human-computer interface is making it more and more possible to replace humans in most “left-brain” jobs. Any job that is based on a set of rules that is logical, sequential, rational, and analytical or objective can be performed by a software program. When you think about it, that is a surprisingly long list. Jobs like ATM bank transactions, telephone operators, self-service checkout at stores, GPS navigation, assembly-line workers have already been automated. Designers are planning driverless cars, pilotless aircraft and banks and courthouses without people. A great deal of accounting, sales, medical and financial services are already automated with more coming. In the military, we now have UAV’s (unmanned aerial vehicles), autonomous weapons and robotic combat vehicles. By contrast, right-brained jobs are in high demand and growing. Jobs that involve imagination, synthesis of ideas, and subjective views will thrive in the future. These are jobs that cannot easily be programmed. These jobs include artistic design, music composition, writing, dance, theatre, architecture, design and marketing. These are jobs that involve innovation of ideas and solutions and to the application of new concepts in a holistic, intuitive and sometimes random manner. Lots of businesses are now creating job positions with titles like envisioneer, design strategist, marketing coordinator and creative engineer. It might be time for your business to consider institutionalizing thinking outside the box.
Remember, “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change”, Charles Darwin.